Tag Archive for: elections

Crisis

‘Prime minister Luís Montenegro got himself into trouble’

Damaging soundbites in the media over business connections of the Prime Minister (PM) Luís Montenegro ( and other members of the executive) helped along by revelations in the renowned weekly newspaper Expresso that the PM’s family business Spinumviva receives a 4500 euros monthly retainer from the Solverde casino and hotels/spa franchise.

The weekly Sábado even goes further by suggesting that Montenegro’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) is creating a ‘familygate’, a scenario seeing numerous husbands, wives, cousins, sisters- and brothers-in-law promoted to high positions in government.

Political authorities have emphasized to give up on Spinumviva completely but this did not happen. Rui Rocha, leader of the liberal party (IL), stated that Montenegro has to decide ‘whether he wants to remain PM or to have a business, as the two things cannot be combined.‘

But it was the right-wing extremist party leader Ventura who further complicated the matter by saying ‘resign or present a motion of confidence, unless the Prime Minister is comfortable with being the new (corrupt) José Sócrates of Portuguese politics ’

Last Friday Montenegro declared that he is turning over his business to his sons without winding it up or giving up clients, something that various political parties had asked for. On Saturday night, the PM gave an address to the nation at the start of the news bulletins on TV, informing the country that he would be presenting a motion of confidence to Parliament.

However, by admitting a motion of confidence, he effectively puts the future of his minority government on even thinner ice as the country’s largest opposition party – the Socialists (PS) – are not willing to support this government and therefore cannot support a motion of confidence.

If the government falls, the country will be on its way to new elections – in a year which already has two election campaigns ahead – municipal elections in the autumn and presidential elections in early 2026 – at a time when Europe is in turmoil as a result of the US betrayal over Ukraine.

The shadow of the possible scenario of early elections though hovered over the country for just a few hours, when later that evening it turned out that no opposition party met the Prime Minister’s demand to admit a motion of confidence. Luís Montenegro was quick to consider this to be sufficient to continue governance. Nevertheless, the probability of early elections remains high.




Enjoy your week          Approveite a semana               (pic Sapo/Público)

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Voting

‘Where 2 dogs fight for a bone, the 3rd runs away with it home’ – Dutch saying

A 50-year-old political system dominated by two main parties – the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Socialist Party (PS) – has come to an end as the far-right party Chega (Enough) picked up nearly one-fifth of the votes on anti-corruption, immigration and euroscepticism.

The Democratic Alliance (AD) – a centre-right coalition of the PSD and the Christian Democrats led by Luis Montenegro – technically won the elections with 29% of the votes. The margin, however, was only 1% with their main opponent, the centre-left PS. It is very unlikely that the two main parties will cut a deal, leaving the centre-right facing an unstable minority government.

The elections brought an end to the nine-year government of the Socialist Party of António Costa, who had to resign last November as a result of alleged illegalities in his government’s handling of large green investment projects. His Partido Socialista only took 28% of the votes, a dramatic fall since the comfortable victory in 2022 with 47% of the votes. After losing the election the current party leader Pedro Nuo Santos declared that the PS would lead the opposition. 

The far-left also fared badly with an increasingly weak Communist party (PCP) securing just four MPs and the anti-capitalist Left Bloc (BE), clasping to the five seats it has since 2022. The pro-EU party Livre was more lucky, going from one to four MPs.

The biggest win, however, went to the populist Chega party, led by former football commentator Andre Ventura. It became the 3rd political party in the country with 18% of the votes after obtaining a mere 7% of the votes in 2022.

Corruption ranks high among voters’ concerns and was a key focus of the far-right campaign. Besides the investigation into Costa’s administration that triggered this election, another former Socialist prime minister – José Sócrates – is going to stand trial again over allegations that he pocketed about 34m euros during his time in power from fraud and money laundering. But also the PSD is facing corruption allegations, with two prominent party politicians recently forced to resign amid a fraud investigation in Madeira.  

It is unclear what role the far-right party will play in the new government since AD’s party leader Montenegro has repeatedly declared that he refuses to cut a deal with the ‘racist, xenophobic and demagogic’ Chega leader Ventura. The question is now how much strength is left in that cordon sanitaire.

Chega’s success is the result of letting the social discontent grow on deteriorating living and working conditions. Costa’s majority government proved to be unable to meet the economic aftermath of Covid. Minimum wage increases unable to meet inflation, rent controls out of the question, and faltering performance in public education and the National Health Service (SNS).

In the westernmost nation of mainland Europe where incomes are the sixth lowest in the EU, over 10% of the population are living in food poverty and ‘non-habitual residents’ (i.e. expats) enjoy considerable tax exemptions, people are easy prey to an ultra-nationalist party that promises higher wages and public spending but lower taxes at the same time.


Have a nice week         Tenha uma semana boa         (pic Público/Sapo)























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Majority

‘Absolute majority doesn’t mean absolute power’ (António Costa)

Against all odds, Portugal’s centre-left Socialists won a straight parliamentary majority in last week’s general election, securing a strong new mandate for Prime Minister António Costa. It is for the first time the Socialists have won an absolute majority after six years in power. This means the country will have a stable government to oversee the application of the EU pandemic recovery package of 16.6 billion euros.


The striking victory didn’t remain unnoticed abroad as was highlighted in the international press headlines.

 ‘Socialists win surprise outright majority (Guardian)
‘Antonio Costa, the shrewd negotiator’ (El País)
‘Prime Minister with few obstacles and more longevity’ (El Mundo)
‘António Costa builds its legend’ (La Vanguardia)
‘The indestructible socialist, who united the left’ (El Español)
‘António Costa’s revenge’ (Le Monde)
‘Portugal promotes the Costa model’ (La Republica)
‘An overwhelming majority, animosity with Chega’ (Folha de São Paulo)
Portugal’s Socialists win an Outright Majority in Parliament (New York Times)
‘António Costa’s impressive victory’ (Politico)

The Socialist Party (PS) smashed its former far-left allies, the Left Bloc (BE) and the Communists (PCP) both losing more than half of their seats in parliament. The centre-right fared barely better. The second-largest Social-Democratic Party (PSD) gathered only 30% of the vote (against the Socialists’ around 42%).
The People and Nature party (PAN) lost three of its four MP’s and the Christian Democrats (CDS) lost all its five MP’s in parliament, including its leader. 


Despite the coronavirus pandemic, turnout was on track to beat 2019’s record low participation of 49%.


But the election results also showed a less pleasant surprise.
The far-right Chega (Enough) emerged as the third-largest parliamentary force, making a big leap from just one MP to 12 in the 230-seat parliament.



Costa – PM since 2015 – has won plaudits for turning around the country’s 2011-2014 debt crisis, reversing unpopular austerity measures, decreasing the budget deficit, and overseeing one of the most successful Covid vaccination programs in Europe. Still, Portugal remains western Europe’s poorest country. His biggest challenge will therefore be to promote economic growth.


The PM declared in his victory speech: ‘An absolute majority doesn’t mean absolute power. It doesn’t mean to govern alone but to govern with and for all Portuguese’.
But there is also a warning. The last time the Socialists had an absolute majority was with José Socrates in 2005 and that administration was marked by corruption and authoritarianism.



Enjoy your week    —      Tenha uma semana fixe        (pic Público/Sapo)







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Elections

‘Democracy has no owner’ (Carlos Moedas, new mayor of Lisbon)

The ruling center-left Socialist Party (PS) of prime minister António Costa won the local elections with 34% of the votes. Although less convincing than 4 years ago, when the SP was able to take the lead in 160 of the 308 municipalities. This time the party lost 11 councils.

The center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) gained ground with 24% of the votes. After its worse result ever in 2017 – winning only 98 councils – it recovered 16 municipalities, giving the party the chance to nominate the mayor.

The completely unexpected loss of the Socialists in Lisbon against Novos Tempos (‘New Times’) – a coalition of right-wing parties, including the PSD – meant a sensitive blow to the PS, who had been in power there for 14 consecutive years.

The newly elected mayor in the capital – Carlos Moedas – however, will face a red wall of councillors. The rightist PSD coalition has seven councillors, exactly the same amount as the leftist PS. But there are three more councillors who are likely to team up with the PS. Two communists and one from the Left Bloc, a party with Marxist roots and 19 deputies in Parliament but no mayors at the local level.

The Centre Democratic and Social Popular Party (CDS-PP) – a conservative Christian anti-abortion and anti-euthanasia party – won, in alliance with the PSD, in only 5 councils. One less than four years ago.

The biggest loser was the one-hundred-year-old Communist Party (PCP) – one of the strongest communist parties in Western Europe – who got just over 8% of the votes, losing 5 of their 19 councils. Their worst result since 1976, when Portugal introduced democracy after the Carnation Revolution.


The far-right, xenophobic and nationalist party Chega (‘Enough’) – with one seat in Parliament and taking part in the local elections for the first time – achieved modest success with 4% of the votes, not enough though to conquer a council.

Only 28 councils (9%) were won by a woman, 4 less than in 2017. The Socialists elected most women for mayor – 18 out of 28 – followed by the Social Democrats with 7 women and the Communists with 3 women in the leadership.

The turnout was traditionally poor.
Of the nine million voters, who were able to take part in this election, just over 50% showed up.

Enjoy your week                   Approveite sua semana      (pic Sapo/Ptres)


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Climate-proof

‘There is no planet B’

Portugal prepares to vote in Sunday’s general election.
With thousands of youngsters filling the streets at Lisbon’s Global Climate strike, one wonders how ‘green’ in fact its political parties are?

The centre-right Social Democrat party (PSD) recognizes ‘the state of emergency the planet is in’ but only presents measures enhancing the country’s ‘adaptation to climate change’ by limiting urban expansion in risk zones and favouring garden roofs. The PSD argues the energy sector to adapt but doesn’t specify how.

For the ruling Socialist party (PS) climate change adaptation is also needed. But that isn’t enough. The party defines concrete targets for 2030 and others for 2050, such as carbon neutrality. The PS wishes to reinforce the capacity of wind farms and – faced with extreme weather – extend forecasting and warning systems. Empowering farmers ‘to adopt good practices’ is also called for.

The Left Bloc (BE) is in favour of a Climate Law, an Energy Base Law and a Ministry of Climate Action. The far-left party advocates the end of fossil fuel car production by 2025 and coal-fired power generation by 2023, in the meantime accelerating solar production. It also intends to ban cars from city centres and strives for free public transport, favouring investment in ‘rail mode’.

The Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) – an electoral coalition between Communists and ecologist Greens – rejects green taxation, the concept of user pays and CO2 licensing. Instead, the railway network should be modernized with ‘high-speed connections’ from Lisbon to Porto and the Spanish border. It also advocates a Forest Policy based on traditional ecosystems.

The millennium Animal and Nature party (PAN) – founded in 2009 – wants vegetarian meals at state-sponsored events, prevention of any exploitation of hydrocarbons and the closure of all coal plants by 2023. Furthermore financial benefits for cycling to work, measures to reduce car traffic, restrictions on night air traffic and the suspension of the construction of a new airport.

For the rightwing Christen Democrats (CDS) a Climate Law for carbon neutrality is warranted. The party wishes to materialize an energy transition with transparency in the energy market’. Other objectives include ‘green’ entrepreneurship, full electrification and expansion of the railways.

However, the level of commitment of all six major parties is far too low, argues a group of independent citizens, analysing the elections programs. None of the parties mentions sufficient steps to reach the 96 goals (metas) defined in the Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality.
The PS – with 40 targets – comes first, which is not surprising given that the Roadmap is an initiative of the current socialist government. The CDU closes the peloton with only 13 targets covered. PAN proposes the most CO2 reduction measures and BE is the party that most concretises the actions to achieve carbon neutrality.

The polls suggest António Costa’s Socialist party will win but fall short of an absolute majority in parliament.
If the climate were to choose, it would be a coalition of the Socialist party and the Left Bloc or the PAN- which is less ideologically fixed.

Bom fim de semana                Enjoy your weekend            (pic. Público/Sapo)

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